Hormuz Shipping Still Severely Disrupted as Official Weekly Data Confirm Seven Tanker Attacks in a Week; Gulf Crude Exports Recover to About 82% of Pre-War Levels

• Dispatched: Nov 14, 2026 · 12:08 ET (17:08 UTC)

One-sentence summary: The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency's latest weekly assessment confirms at least seven tankers were attacked in and around the Strait of Hormuz in the week to November 11, 2026, with traffic through the strait still about 65% below pre-war levels, while International Energy Agency data show Gulf crude exports have recovered to about 82% of pre-war volumes — though refined-product and LPG exports remain at roughly half.

Verification status: ✓ Official first-hand disclosure (UKMTO weekly assessment and IEA report, cross-reported by trade press)

Core Facts & Consensus Delta:

The UKMTO and IEA reports were released on Friday, November 13, 2026 (ET). UKMTO documented eight maritime security incidents in its latest reporting period, including seven tanker attacks: five in the Strait of Hormuz, two in the Arabian Gulf and one in the Gulf of Oman. Three vessels continued their voyages, three required assistance and the outcomes of two remained unknown; none was reported sunk. The latest attack, on November 11, saw an unidentified projectile strike a tanker's engine room about 14 nautical miles northwest of Ras al-Khaimah in the UAE, causing a fire; the crew was evacuated and several crew members were injured. UKMTO kept the regional threat level at severe. Transits through the strait totaled 139 outbound and 169 inbound, still about 65% below pre-conflict levels.

On the IEA side, Gulf producers excluding Oman exported 18.4 million barrels per day in October, 26% below pre-war levels; crude accounted for 15 million barrels per day, about 82% of pre-war volumes. Global oil inventories rose by 52 million barrels in October, and oil on the water jumped by 86 million barrels to the highest since January. North Sea Dated crude has fallen from an October peak of $136 per barrel to around $93. The IEA now expects global oil supply to exceed demand by 1.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, reversing its previous forecast of a deficit. But refined-product and LPG exports remain at roughly half of pre-war levels, European diesel prices are still near $180 per barrel, about 77% above pre-war levels, and crude freight rates from the Middle East to Asia remain near record highs.

One distinction matters: UKMTO's incident reports describe strikes by unidentified projectiles. Iranian claims that tankers struck naval mines and caught fire have not been confirmed by UKMTO or maritime authorities.

Supply-Chain & Market Read-Through: Export volumes are recovering while vessel traffic is not, which means Gulf crude is moving through US-facilitated transits and a shrunken fleet — shipping capacity, not wellhead output, is now the bottleneck. Near-record Middle East-to-Asia crude freight rates directly raise delivered costs for Asian refiners, while European diesel running about 77% above pre-war levels reflects the structural shortfall in refined products and LPG, which are only about half restored. IEA member countries plan to release a further 71 million barrels of emergency stocks by the end of February 2027, including 15 million barrels of diesel, to ease the squeeze. Data from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy show at least ten ships were hit in the first ten days of November and 37 attacks in October, the highest monthly total since the conflict began in February — attack frequency has not fallen with oil prices, so the recovery remains exposed to fresh shipping disruption.

Next Catalysts & Watchpoints:

• UKMTO's next weekly assessment (expected around November 20, 2026, ET), for whether attack counts fall and transits keep recovering;
• The IEA's December Oil Market Report, for whether the fourth-quarter surplus forecast of 1.7 million barrels per day is maintained;
• The trilateral meeting of Presidents Trump, Xi and Putin on the sidelines of APEC on Thursday, November 19, 2026 (ET), for any new diplomatic movement on Iran.

Sources:

• gCaptain: Gulf Oil Exports Recover as Hormuz Shipping Struggles (Published: 2026-11-13, ET)
• The BriefBrief: UKMTO Records Seven Tanker Attacks Near Hormuz (Published: 2026-11-14 01:07 ET / 06:07 UTC)
• Reuters (via KTWB): Four Tankers Struck by Explosions in Strait of Hormuz, Iran Says (Published: 2026-11-12 11:27 ET / 16:27 UTC)

Information only, not investment advice.