US October PPI: Headline Cools to 0.3% as Core Rises 0.5% for a Second Month

• Dispatched: Nov 13, 2026 · 09:12 ET (14:12 UTC)

One-sentence summary: US producer prices rose 0.3% in October, below the 0.4% consensus, but the core gauge excluding food, energy and trade services rose 0.5% for a second straight month, while the 12-month headline rate reached 6.5%, its largest since November 2022.

Verification status: ✓ Official primary disclosure (US Bureau of Labor Statistics news release USDL-26-1687)

Core Facts & Consensus Delta:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released October producer prices at 08:30 ET / 13:30 UTC on 2026-11-13. The final demand index rose 0.3% month on month, below the 0.4% Dow Jones survey consensus and sharply slower than September's 1.4% (revised up from 1.3%). On a 12-month basis it rose 6.5%, below the 6.6% consensus but above September's 6.3% — the largest annual increase since November 2022 (7.4%).

The core measure excluding food, energy and trade services rose 0.5% on the month, matching September and beating the 0.3% survey consensus; it rose 4.9% year on year, slightly below the 5.0% consensus. Goods rose 0.5% on the month (September: 2.5%) and 10.2% year on year, the largest annual gain since October 2022; services rose 0.2%, a fifth consecutive monthly increase, with transportation and warehousing up 2.0% while trade services margins fell 0.2%.

Upstream pipeline pressure stayed firm: processed goods for intermediate demand rose 0.4% on the month and 14.6% year on year, the largest since July 2022; services for intermediate demand rose 0.6% on the month and 6.8% year on year, the largest since November 2022.

Supply-Chain & Market Read-Through: This is the last inflation reading before the Federal Reserve's December 8–9 meeting: November CPI is not published until December 10, the day after the meeting ends. The split — a cooler headline against a stubbornly hot core — complicates the Fed's decision. Several PPI components, including airfares, portfolio management fees and health care services, feed directly into the personal consumption expenditures price index, shaping the October core PCE due November 25, the gauge the Fed anchors to its 2% target.

Rate futures had fully priced a December hike before the release, with a quarter-point move the base case and roughly 11%–14% odds on a half-point step; the 10-year Treasury yield stood near 5.13%–5.14% and the two-year near 4.85%–4.89% ahead of the data. For the semiconductor and memory chain, the BLS-cited rise in electronic components and accessories prices points to upstream hardware costs still climbing, keeping enterprise procurement cost pressure intact; PPI itself does not cover HBM contract prices, whose direction still depends on manufacturer quotes and contract negotiations.

Next Catalysts & Watchpoints:

• 2026-11-17, after the close: Nvidia fiscal Q3 results (release after 16:00 ET; call 17:00 ET / 22:00 UTC)
• 2026-11-18: Minutes of the Fed's October meeting
• 2026-11-25 08:30 ET / 13:30 UTC: October PCE price index
• 2026-12-08–09: FOMC meeting (rate decision and updated economic projections)
• 2026-12-10 08:30 ET / 13:30 UTC: November CPI; 2026-12-15: November PPI

Sources:

• US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Producer Price Index News Release (Published: 2026-11-13 08:30 ET / 13:30 UTC)
• ActionForex: US PPI Slows Sharply to 0.3%, but Underlying Price Pressures Stay Firm (Published: 2026-11-13 13:38 UTC)

Information only, not investment advice.